Guide to Lotto - Statistics and Strategy

Discussion in 'Basic Tutorials' started by Obblebobble, Feb 9, 2015.

?

How many times did this guide confuse you?

  1. 0 - I'm a maths genius

    51.5%
  2. 1 - Mostly made sense

    12.1%
  3. 2 - I sort of get it

    4.5%
  4. 3 - Ooh look theres $100,000 in lotto let me invest all my money

    7.6%
  5. 4 - I don't even know what lotto is

    4.5%
  6. 5 - What is "Maths"

    15.2%
  7. I divided by 0.

    34.8%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. minecraftninja05

    Builder ⛰️ Ex-EcoLeader ⚜️⚜️⚜️

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2013
    Messages:
    2,201
    Trophy Points:
    47,590
    Gender:
    Male
    Ratings:
    +1,018
  2. BuildsByGideon

    BuildsByGideon Architecture
    Builder ⛰️ Ex-EcoLegend ⚜️⚜️⚜️⚜️ Prestige ⭐ I ⭐ Premium Upgrade

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2015
    Messages:
    1,862
    Trophy Points:
    56,010
    Gender:
    Male
    Ratings:
    +4,373
    Nice, you got 2 mil
     
  3. Obblebobble

    Obblebobble Vault of ECC - Founder
    Builder ⛰️ Ex-President ⚒️⚒️ Premium Upgrade

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    1,399
    Trophy Points:
    45,490
    EcoDollars:
    $0
    Ratings:
    +1,494
    Yeah, some people profit. But the stats are stats :p Plus those leaderboards are recent, they dont include old-lottery statistics.
     
  4. Thorpian

    Thorpian Builder
    Builder ⛰️ Ex-Resident ⚒️

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2014
    Messages:
    258
    Trophy Points:
    20,090
    Gender:
    Male
    Ratings:
    +99
    So I like maths:

    Warning: maths ahead

    The average loss is 15%. Always. However, if one records their statistics, they could choose a % (say 5% gain). And quit afterwards.

    Since the Average loss is always 15%, one simply should try to wait it out.

    A) 1% of the tickets nets you a 1% chance of winning. 2% nets 2%, etc. Therefore, a fifty percent chance of winning is when you have 50% of the tickets. Since the max is 85%, the ideal zone is about 40-60%. That will make you win about half the time on average. That means that it'll take you about 2 games of lotto to get exactly 85% return. If you always buy 1% of the tickets, it'll take you 42.5 games on average to get 85% return. A non-sustainable wait for most of us.

    B) Your average return will be 85%. Accept it. However, if you continue to play through the fluctuations in wins/losses, you will eventually be ABOVE 85% (unless ur incredibly chance-troubled). Then you stop.

    C) Yes, this won't work long term. But it makes you feel good ;). No its technically not mathematically sound...but then again random number generator usually aren't truly random either.

    D) its also possible to use the concept of doubling you bet (doubling your ticket %) in order to win at lotto. However since it is hard to predict what others will do, this is hard. It is also not workable long-term since you can't keep doubling indefinitely. In the end though, just remember:

    Maths always wins and you lose.
     
    #44 Thorpian, Nov 2, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2015
  5. Obblebobble

    Obblebobble Vault of ECC - Founder
    Builder ⛰️ Ex-President ⚒️⚒️ Premium Upgrade

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    1,399
    Trophy Points:
    45,490
    EcoDollars:
    $0
    Ratings:
    +1,494

    Yeah I agree with most of what you said. Although, waiting out lotto until you ARE above is not reliable at all. It's possible yes, but the statistics are against you :). Lets say you've already bet away $500,000 and not won ONCE... so far you have a 0% profit rate. Does that mean if you keep betting eventually you will earn money up to the 85% profit? No.

    No matter how many times you have already bet, your returns and probabilities will never change based on that. You can win $2,000,000 with 1 ticket and say you earned a crazy amount of profit, but for each time you play average return is 85%. So playing to make profit, will likely just put you more in debt. Like you said it won't work long term, and anyone who tries to make profit off lotto is kidding themselves, it's possible but unlikely.

    Take a look at those who have over "30,000,000" in winnings. Where is the money? That's right, all/most spent on lotto.
     
  6. minecraftninja05

    Builder ⛰️ Ex-EcoLeader ⚜️⚜️⚜️

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2013
    Messages:
    2,201
    Trophy Points:
    47,590
    Gender:
    Male
    Ratings:
    +1,018
    Shush dun take this away from meXD But yea Ik, the lotto taketh and the lotto taketh some more
     
  7. kukelekuuk

    kukelekuuk C͕̹̲̽ͪ͐ͩ̔L̜̦̝͈ͦ̿̾̿ḘA̻̗̤̳̐ͭ̆̿̃̑ͭN̊̓͑̇ͯ
    Builder ⛰️ Ex-EcoLeader ⚜️⚜️⚜️ Premium Upgrade

    Joined:
    May 25, 2011
    Messages:
    10,051
    Trophy Points:
    80,160
    Ratings:
    +6,923
    I can't actually make any more statistic pages. It uses up more RAM than my VPS has, and I'm too lazy to optimize the script to use less.
     
  8. 314

    314 Irrational GameAdmin, former ServerAdmin
    EcoLegend ⛰️⛰️⛰️⛰️ Ex-President ⚒️⚒️ Prestige ⭐ VI ⭐ Premium Upgrade

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2014
    Messages:
    7,219
    Trophy Points:
    97,160
    EcoDollars:
    $6,000,000
    Ratings:
    +4,955
    Get more RAM then. :p
     
  9. Expipiplusone

    Expipiplusone Builder
    Builder ⛰️ Ex-Tycoon ⚜️⚜️⚜️ Premium Upgrade

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2014
    Messages:
    1,591
    Trophy Points:
    37,590
    Gender:
    Male
    Ratings:
    +777
    I can't find a more gentle way to say this: if you say so, you clearly have a very poor understanding of what statistics is.
     
  10. Expipiplusone

    Expipiplusone Builder
    Builder ⛰️ Ex-Tycoon ⚜️⚜️⚜️ Premium Upgrade

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2014
    Messages:
    1,591
    Trophy Points:
    37,590
    Gender:
    Male
    Ratings:
    +777
    That's the only time when I lotto, and never more than 1 ticket
     
  11. Expipiplusone

    Expipiplusone Builder
    Builder ⛰️ Ex-Tycoon ⚜️⚜️⚜️ Premium Upgrade

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2014
    Messages:
    1,591
    Trophy Points:
    37,590
    Gender:
    Male
    Ratings:
    +777
    This is basically the martingale "strategy", which has been proved wrong https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

    Exactly
     
  12. BackToThePast

    BackToThePast Builder
    Builder ⛰️ Ex-EcoLegend ⚜️⚜️⚜️⚜️ Prestige ⭐ II ⭐ Premium Upgrade

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2013
    Messages:
    1,749
    Trophy Points:
    58,410
    Gender:
    Male
    Ratings:
    +2,135
    Yeah lotto scams me A LOT, was gonna post a complaint but meh, I feel bad for people who have to scam so much.
     
  13. BackToThePast

    BackToThePast Builder
    Builder ⛰️ Ex-EcoLegend ⚜️⚜️⚜️⚜️ Prestige ⭐ II ⭐ Premium Upgrade

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2013
    Messages:
    1,749
    Trophy Points:
    58,410
    Gender:
    Male
    Ratings:
    +2,135
    Oh, and btw, this does not include the money you also get back from winning the lotto, today I got the opportunity of scamming her back :)
    [​IMG]
     
  14. UnitedStates2

    UnitedStates2 Builder
    Builder ⛰️ Ex-President ⚒️⚒️ Gameplay Architect Premium Upgrade

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2014
    Messages:
    5,880
    Trophy Points:
    78,660
    Ratings:
    +6,302
    I believe you need to download more ram, my good sir.
     
    #54 UnitedStates2, Nov 2, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2015
  15. Obblebobble

    Obblebobble Vault of ECC - Founder
    Builder ⛰️ Ex-President ⚒️⚒️ Premium Upgrade

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    1,399
    Trophy Points:
    45,490
    EcoDollars:
    $0
    Ratings:
    +1,494
    That post was very old, but yeah I sometimes drop a few tickets for fun and that's it. Never to profit.

    The only time I truly try to risky my money for a "profit" is in those situations as stated above. I dropped $100,000 (100 tickets) in a crazy lotto final draw to win 2 lobby features (Although 1 is only being released it seems, but worth $30. That's $150,000 ECD value). With the total pool being only $130,000 ($85,000 of this was my own) yet BOTH lotto medals PLUS features, the risk vs reward was very much in my favour and I won with a $30,000 profit + medals + $150,000 equivalent profit.

    This is really the only time lotto is "worth" doing.
     
  16. matrix_rep

    matrix_rep Runner Up in BB20
    Mythic ⚔️ I ⚔️ ECC Sponsor Resident ⛰️ Ex-EcoLegend ⚜️⚜️⚜️⚜️ Prestige ⭐⭐ XI ⭐⭐ Premium Upgrade

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2014
    Messages:
    4,680
    Trophy Points:
    102,160
    Gender:
    Male
    Ratings:
    +7,465
    The lotto leaderboards are designed for more people to lotto as they see people made money. (WRONG) news flash lotto leaderboards does not show all the money people have lost.
     
  17. bobman3355

    bobman3355 Mayor
    Builder ⛰️ Ex-Mayor ⚒️⚒️ Prestige ⭐ III ⭐ Premium Upgrade

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2014
    Messages:
    1,273
    Trophy Points:
    60,460
    Gender:
    Male
    Ratings:
    +866
    ive made a very good profit with 1 tix but lost millions on big tix. I know u lose in the long run with any amount of tix but 1 seems to have consistently made me money for the past few months.
     
  18. Obblebobble

    Obblebobble Vault of ECC - Founder
    Builder ⛰️ Ex-President ⚒️⚒️ Premium Upgrade

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    1,399
    Trophy Points:
    45,490
    EcoDollars:
    $0
    Ratings:
    +1,494
    Sure that can be correct, it seems so. You only spend $1,000 per lotto and can win heaps, but you're still losing $150 each time you win anything.
     
  19. bobman3355

    bobman3355 Mayor
    Builder ⛰️ Ex-Mayor ⚒️⚒️ Prestige ⭐ III ⭐ Premium Upgrade

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2014
    Messages:
    1,273
    Trophy Points:
    60,460
    Gender:
    Male
    Ratings:
    +866
    ya but 1 tixing 215k and multiple 80 and 90k pots lets me put 1 tix in a ton of pots while I am still ahead. I seem to just be lucky with 1 tix so I will keep doing it until I dont win anymore.
     
    #59 bobman3355, Nov 2, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2015
  20. Obblebobble

    Obblebobble Vault of ECC - Founder
    Builder ⛰️ Ex-President ⚒️⚒️ Premium Upgrade

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    1,399
    Trophy Points:
    45,490
    EcoDollars:
    $0
    Ratings:
    +1,494
    It's all fun so doesn't matter :) It's only 1k.