A Simple Plesiohedron (For 15 kiloecddollars)

Discussion in 'Competitions' started by mypolopony, Aug 17, 2019.

  1. mypolopony

    mypolopony Builder
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    I think that I can give out 15,000 ECD for this one (because I think it's a decent problem, especially if you're elegant about it)

    Ceteris paribus, and assuming (pseudo-)randomness:

    # # # #
    What is the probability of /wilding and being within 63 blocks from the 'edge' of ECC?
    # # # #

    Any reasonable contribution is valuable, so please add. It's not a winner takes all, more of an open house. Partial points should be given out for decent progress towards an answer.

    If you're thinking, but wait what, what does 'edge' mean and etc. etc -- you're on the right path; keep going.

    There may be several solutions and all solutions are equal, some are more equal than others. . .
     
  2. cida

    cida true blue full grown fair dinkum fkn aussie
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    First, realise that the Y axis is irrelevant in this problem, as if /wild were to take you to the same X/Z co-ords more than once, you would end up at the same Y co-ordinate every time.

    Second, assume that the map size is that of the overworld, i.e. 30,000 blocks in the X/Z directions (15000 -> -15000), for a total grid size of 900,000,000.

    Third, assume that /wild is able to teleport you to your current location, i.e. you don't move (I choose this assumption because the probability of this happening is so small, that it will hold nearly no bearing on our final answer, but accounting for it introduces unnecessary complexity)

    This is the same as saying that every time /wild is executed, you have a 1 in 900,000,000 chance of teleporting to a specific X/Z co-ord.

    Now, you specify being within 63 blocks from the edge of the map border. On the specified map size, this is represented by 7544124 blocks.

    [
    region that is everything except 63 blocks from the edge: 30000-63-63 = 29874, 29874^2 = 892455876,
    actual region: 900000000-892,455,876 = 7544124
    ]

    Now the probability of teleporting to a block that is exactly 63 blocks away from the edge of ECC is
    7544124/900000000, i.e. 0.838236%.

    Rounding to 2 significant figures gives a rough probability of 0.84%.
     
  3. TM_iBeast

    TM_iBeast Not Staff Member
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    This is impossible to consider in the calculations but /wild doesn't include water blocks. So you'd just have to remove # of water blocks from the 900 million.
     
    #3 TM_iBeast, Aug 17, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2019
  4. Pixel75

    Pixel75 Lucky EcoLegend
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    Just do /wild water
     
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  5. cida

    cida true blue full grown fair dinkum fkn aussie
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    I thought /wild was the same as /wild ALL? i.e. a combination of /wild water & /wild land

    If it did need to take only land into account, I suppose you could use the very very rough statistic that Earth is 71% water.

    This would change our probability to 0.838236 * 0.29 = 0.24308844% = 0.24% (2 s.f.).